In Mary Robinette Kowal’s The Calculating Stars, a meteor hits the east coast of the United States in the 1950s, obliterating Washington DC and causing global climate catastrophe. Mathematical genius and future Lady Astronaut Elma York calculates that the climate shock will within a couple of generations tip the Earth into a runaway greenhouse state like Venus, destroying all life on the planet. (And note that it is specifically a runaway greenhouse. She explicitly mentions the oceans boiling.)
Later, the scientists back away from this claim and say that with careful control of carbon emissions, this fate may be avoidable, but they won’t know for sure until it’s too late.
Does this make sense? Well…no. While the vast majority of the book is very well researched (as far as I can determine), this part is not good science. To cut a long story short, there’s basically no way for a runaway greenhouse effect to happen on Earth. But this doesn’t necessarily negate the rest of the story. I wanted to investigate how bad this disaster would really be.
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